# US Inflation Outlook — Executive Summary
**As of:** Monday 7 Sep 2026 (Asia/Kolkata)  
**Report:** [`us-inflation-ai-bessent-oil.html`](./us-inflation-ai-bessent-oil.html)

## Takeaway
July 2026 CPI is **3.4% YoY** (core **2.5%**); PCE is hotter at **3.7% / 3.3%**. Energy—especially gasoline (+24.6% YoY)—is the main wedge. Oil remains geopolitically elevated (~$90 WTI / ~$96.5 Brent on 7 Sep reports), while AI data-center power demand is a multi-year structural story with a **modest** 12-month national CPI footprint.

**Bessent “selling Treasuries” is not supported by Aug–Sep 2026 reporting.** Observed policy is expanded **long-end buybacks**, unchanged auction schedule, and possible TGA / Twist funding aimed at *containing* long yields. Higher term-premium inflation is an **Upside scenario ASSUMPTION** (buybacks fail), not a documented dump of coupons.

### Scenario endpoints (12-month horizon)
| Scenario | End CPI YoY | Energy pp | AI/DC pp | Rates pp | Other pp | Total Δ |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Base | **2.55%** | −0.79 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.85 |
| Upside inflation | **4.19%** | +0.31 | +0.28 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.79 |
| Mild disinflation | **1.49%** | −1.50 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.35 | −1.91 |

### Quarterly Base path (CPI YoY)
2026Q4 **3.23%** → 2027Q1 **2.98%** → 2027Q2 **2.72%** → 2027Q3 **2.55%**

### How to open / share
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